Liberia’s 2023 Elections: Prospects for Continuity or Change
Brief 3
Liberia’s 2023 Elections: Prospects for Continuity or Change
Introduction
Liberia will have its fourth post-war multi-party general and presidential elections on October 10, 2023. This will be the first general and presidential elections since the departure of the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) in 2018. The Ducor Institute launched the Liberia Election Analysis Project (LEAP) to monitor the electoral process and provide real-time information and analysis. The objective of the LEAP project is to collect information and provide regular analysis of the events, themes, trends, actors, and dynamics of the period before, during and after the 2023 elections in Liberia. To assess and analyse the historical trend of these elections and the emerging patterns in post-war Liberia, the Ducor Institute held a webinar that brought together more than forty participants. Under Liberia’s 2023 Elections: Prospects for Continuity or Change, the dialogue explores essential themes such as state- and nation-building, party politics, gender, democracy, and justice.
Panellists
For the webinar, we brought together two experts, David Harris, Associate Professor of African Studies at the University of Bradford and Director of the John Elnora Ferguson Centre for African Studies (JEFCA), and Robtel Neajai Pailey, Assistant Professor in International Social and Public Policy at The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). Both Harris and Pailey researched the dynamics of post-war elections in Liberia. They published two scholarly articles on the subject: “Liberia’s Run Up to 2017: Continuity and Change in a Long History of Electoral Politics” (2017) and “‘We don’t know who be Who’: post-party politics, Forum Shopping and Liberia’s 2017 elections” (2020).
Moderator
Aaron Weah is a Fellow at the Ducor Institute and a PhD candidate based at the Transitional Justice Institute (TJI), Ulster University, United Kingdom, investigating grassroots communities’ memorialisation of sites of massacres perpetrated by political violence from 1979 to 2003 in Liberia.
Discussion
The moderator framed the discussions as specific questions to the panellists, reactions to these questions and participants’ comments, questions and observations about previous elections and their implications for continuity or change regarding these elections.
State and Nation-building
Does political party development impact state- and nation-building? According to Harris and Pailey, pre-1980 Liberia had a de facto one-party state, which the True Whig Party led (TWP) government. In the 1980s and 1990s, Liberia observed periods of troubled elections compared to post-2005, which was significantly different. Suppose state- and nation-building are largely about strengthening institutions, governance processes, people, and their relationship with government. In that case, elections can destabilise the attainment of these goals for several reasons. Firstly, the adversarial nature of politics and its zero-sum outcome undermines the extent to which governments should be inclusive. After elections, recruiting the right talent and capacity to strengthen public institutions are state- and nation-building objectives sacrificed over more parochial political interests. Secondly, the zero-sum nature of party politics tends to undermine legitimacy due to a lack of inclusivity. Almost every politician who wins an election is preoccupied with recruiting and hiring members of their political party, even if that person is not qualified to work or manage the functionaries of government. Pailey and Harris believe that this attitude undermines the aspirations of state- and nation-building for it lacks the cohesion and trust required to govern effectively. In this sense, elections can destabilise when policies of inclusion, goals to strengthen governance institutions and promoting one national identity are not prioritised.
Political Parties Development
Harris and Pailey observed that the history of party politics in Liberia is largely fractured. Compared to the 1980s and pre-1980s, post-war politics reflects a different type of politics and representation. Some periods, especially in post-war Liberia, are much more pluralistic and representative than others. From big parties to small parties, all political institutions have had a chance to compete and be represented, with some more competitive than others. In particular, independent candidates have had the rare chance of being competitive, unlike in places such as Sierra Leone and Ghana, where candidacy is envisioned through political party structures. Independent candidates enjoy a lot more traction in Liberia compared to Sierra Leone. Though post-war politics in Liberia is far more pluralistic, political party consolidation is problematic because most political parties are new, lacking historical depth and party discipline. In Sierra Leone, political parties go beyond the civil war to the periods of pre- and post-independence, making the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and All People’s Congress (APC) far more consolidated than their Liberian counterparts. Compared to these two big parties in Sierra Leone, the Unity Party (UP) and the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) in Liberia are not as consolidated.
According to Pailey and Harris, however, the UP appears to be showing early signs of political party consolidation, yet only time will tell if this is true. In Liberia, political parties are more personalist in design, making individuals the figureheads of political parties. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, who served as the figurehead of the UP, was expelled shortly after the 2017 elections. Joseph Boakai emerged as the new figurehead of the party. Pailey and Harris believe this level of party continuity, despite a change or absence of a long-standing figurehead has yet to be seen within the CDC. George Weah, who started as the party's figurehead, remains in charge and continues to dominate. Nonetheless, the extent to which UP may be consolidating warrants further inquiry and Harris and Pailey intend to investigate this further in their forthcoming scholarly analysis of the 2023 elections.
Gender Politics
For a country that produced Africa’s first female head of state, representation of women in Liberian politics is very low. Statistics generated by the National Elections Commission (NEC) show that women candidates running as independents and those running as party candidates account for 22% and 15% of the candidate pool, respectively. This starkly contrasts the 30% proposed in the New Elections Law, which states that political parties “should endeavour to ensure that the governing body and [their] list of candidates has no less than 30% of its members from each gender”. During the Policy Dialogue, some participants questioned the extent to which the policy is enforceable and whether parties are compliant, given that there are no sanctions for non-compliance. Others suggested that Liberia change the electoral law to ensure women have a stronger chance of competing.
Democracy and Justice
Harris and Pailey argue that post-party politics (a profound disregard for political parties by politicians and the electorate alike during and after elections) and forum shopping (when politicians and voters select in multiple electoral fora the political configurations and/or candidates they believe will deliver the most favourable outcome) are prevalent in Liberia and driven by lack of ideology and trust. Most voters do not trust political parties as the suitable vehicle to represent their interests. Consequently, this has led to a voting pattern whereby members of the electorate are likely to vote for a president from one party while voting for senators and representatives from other parties or independents. If the lack of trust in political institutions is one of the main drivers of the electorate demonstrating lack of loyalty to any party, this calls into question the future trajectory of democracy in Liberia. How would criminal accountability for war crimes impact the future of democracy in Liberia? After war, governance institutions suffer from political interference, especially the judiciary and politics are manipulated by new post-war elites. In Liberia, some of the political parties are significantly influenced by those with ill-gotten wealth, especially those who were involved in the organisation of violence. Would political parties inspire more trust and loyalty if politicians with wartime records are removed? Would Liberia’s democracy be placed on a more predictable path? These were some of the thought-provoking questions raised by participants.
Conclusion
The Ducor Institute will continue to hold hybrid and in-person policy dialogues during and after the elections. The dialogues will bring together academics, policymakers, grassroots activists, and civil society leaders.
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